Question 1

What is the Variance Simulator?

Accepted Answer

The Variance Simulator uses Monte Carlo methods to model many possible slot sessions at once. Each path represents one player's journey over the selected number of spins, showing the huge spread of outcomes that variance can produce.

Question 2

What does the bust rate tell me?

Accepted Answer

Bust rate is the percentage of simulated sessions where the bankroll hit zero before the end. A high bust rate, for example 60%, means the majority of players would run out of money under these exact settings, indicating a very high-risk scenario.

Question 3

Why does the expected loss differ from the median outcome?

Accepted Answer

The expected loss is the mathematical average across infinitely many sessions. The median is the middle outcome of your finite simulation. Due to variance the median is often worse than the mean, because many paths bust early and drag down the distribution.

Question 4

How does volatility affect the chart?

Accepted Answer

Higher volatility widens the spread of paths dramatically. Very high volatility can produce a few spectacular winning paths alongside many bust paths, mirroring the real behavior of high-variance slots. Low-volatility paths stay closer together around the expected value line.

Question 5

How many paths should I simulate?

Accepted Answer

10 to 20 paths give a quick visual overview. 50 paths provide a statistically more robust picture of the outcome distribution. More paths also slow down the browser slightly, especially at 1 million spins.

Question 6

What is the average maximum drawdown?

Accepted Answer

The maximum drawdown is the largest drop from a peak balance to a later low point within a session. The average across all simulated paths shows how deep the swings typically get, even in sessions that eventually recover.

Variance Simulator

Balance over Time (20 Paths)

See how variance really hits your bankroll

Monte-Carlo simulation

Multi-path balance chart

Bust rate

Median, best and worst

Average max drawdown

Profit paths

Frequently Asked Questions